Was the Recall the Final Nail in the Coffin of the Republican Party Here in California?

The numbers for the recall election of this past Tuesday are in, 9.5 million ballots counted so far. California’s Secretary of State reported that 2.9 million ballots still need to be counted. Approximately 55% of registered voters voted, a smaller turnout than in 2018 when 64% voted for the regular gubernatorial election.

Political experts have already begun slicing and dicing the election results and what it means for the Republican Party. The GOP has been fighting against their extinction since the late 1990s. Of all registered voters in California, 47% are Democrats, 24% are Republicans, and 23% want no association with neither party.

Republicans, after many tries, succeeded in making the recall a reality. Nonetheless, they lacked the resources, and the candidate who rose to the top was the best thing that had happened to Governor Newsom since hair gel was invented. Elder made it easier for Democrats to create a narrative of fear about “Trumpism” and those right-wing activists against COVID-19 vaccination and masks.

Once Larry Elder emerged among the forty-six candidates. So did his background. Elder’s outlandish claims and his provocative on-air commentaries he had made over the years were scrutinized—moderate voters who were entertaining new leadership checked out.

Larry elder’s controversial candidacy undermined the needed conversation about all the problems facing the people in California. Yes, those unemployed individuals who call daily to the unemployment office and never get an answer; the lack of affordable housing, the problems of education, and the profound inequalities never took center stage during this recall.

What is next for Republicans in California?

In mid-August, most republicans thought that people in California had started awaking to this one-party rule in the state and wanted to throw the bums out. Polls showed that voters in the state wanted a new leader.

One might have thought that this recall election was an opportunity for Republicans here in California. They needed to coalesce around a candidate and raise the money to succeed. They did neither.

It is a big predicament for Republicans who want to bring the GOP back to competitiveness in electoral politics here in this state. What makes the GOP’s “populist” base excited or enthusiastic is what turns off moderate voters in this state. Controversial Larry Elder utterly encapsulated this GOP’s problem in this past recall.

The challenge for Republicans in California if they want to stay competitive is to find a way to excite their base and then reach out to moderate voters. If they cannot go beyond their base, then this party will eventually perish. Coalition building needed to win election escapes California’s GOP’s leadership.

The most moderate wing of California’s GOP, the ones who are more interested in business-friendly policies, have so much work to do. They should go to work, take over the party and change the mainstream image. They should also make the efforts to be more inclusive and make this party the party of Reagan again. Former San Diego Mayor, Kevin Faulconer a moderate with actual political experience, might persuade the independents in the state and democrats who are not satisfied with the status quo.

Who are these so-called “populists” or “right-wing conservatives” Republicans?

They are cultural war warriors who have no respect for government institutions, do not care about the “truth,” and suspect the electoral system; they are anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti-abortion rights. They are primarily whites who feel left out and under attack. Furthermore, they also believe in conspiracy theories. They see government institutions being used against them. They feel threatened by the relentless demographic and cultural changes.

There is so much work to do for California Republicans if they want to get back in the game. For a coherent and clearly articulated strategy, serious Republican leadership is needed. Otherwise, they will not be able to pull from the brink of absolute irrelevance. Voters in California will never vote for Republican candidates who dislike gays, immigrants, see women as lacking intelligence, and would like to stop abortion rights.

For starters, California’s GOP should look into what has been done in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont. These are blue states who have elected Republican governors. A common theme among these Republicans governing these three states is that they have spoken against Trump and rejected Trump’s supporters’ “ethnonationalism.”

Pundits argue that there is hope for the GOP here in California if they cannot identify leaders with the ability to seize opportunities. They point out the progressive propositions rejected in 2020. Yes, voters rejected affirmative action, Rent Control, and a proposition that would force Uber-Lyft, and other companies to treat workers as employees rather than independent contractors. Even when all democratic leaders and organized labor folks spent millions, voters said no.

Some history here, California started changing demographically in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In addition, the state was going through a very painful recession. Republican voters did not like the massive newcomers mostly coming from civil war conflicts in Central America. The end of the cold war had also left many Californians unemployed. The future looked bleak for many Californians. Soon, Republican leaders began proposing harsh anti-immigrant policy proposals.

Democrats, too, joined the choir of those blaming immigrants for all California’s problems. They took driver’s licenses away from undocumented immigrants. In 1993 Senate Bill 976 was introduced by State Democrat Senator Al Alquist. The bill demanded that all driver license applicants provide proof of citizenship. In fighting for his political life, Governor Wilson signed the bill and ended undocumented people’s ability to get a driver’s license.

Democracies work a lot better when there is competition. The Democratic Party controls both houses in the state legislature, the governor’s mansion, and all constitutional offices. There is no accountability. We have seen how our institutions have started deteriorating everywhere we look.

We often heard during the recall Democratic leaders crying foul for the $270 million spent on the election. However, these very same leaders did not say much about the $30 billion that the unemployment office paid to fraudulent claims. What insurmountable incompetence. That was serious money that could have been invested in our roads and freeways that are crumbling up.

When one party controls all sectors of government, there is no impetus for the ruling party to solve problems. They know that voters have no place to go. They will never vote for the “white supremacist republicans.”

Voters can continue using a direct democracy-recall tool against the excesses of the ruling party. Voters can also “vote with their feet.” Meaning moving out of California, which some of them have done. Yes, population has gone down, and the state is losing a congressional seat.

Thank you for reading,

Chamba Sanchez
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Photo Credit: The picture was purchased from Bigstock

Sources consulted.
“Some lessons for the right in California.”Editorial.  Los Angeles Daily News 16 Sept. 2021.
Christopher, Ben. “And the winner in the California recall is?  None of the above.”  CalMatters 16 Sept. 2021.
Golberg, Jonah. “I’m opposed to recalls. But what choice do voters have when there’s one-party rule?.”  Los Angeles Times 6 July 2021.
“How The California Recall Election Will Affect The Republican Party.” Morning Edition. NPR 16 Sept. 2021. Radio.
Willon, Phil, Taryn Luna, and Julia Wick.  “Race was seen as battle against far-right.”  Los Angeles Times 15 Sept. 2021.